Inflation fears on the rise as one-year outlook in Fed survey hits highest level since May 2023
Higher inflation expectations → hawkish Fed repricing → EUR/USD bearish
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The Consumer Price Index measures the change in prices US consumers pay. Traders focus on month-over-month core CPI, which strips out food and energy. Released monthly at 8:30 AM ET.
Inflation sets the Fed's path. A hotter print pushes yields and the dollar up and usually knocks Nasdaq futures and gold lower; a cooler print usually sparks relief rallies.
Higher inflation expectations → hawkish Fed repricing → EUR/USD bearish
Higher US yields boost USD, cut equity valuations
ECB tone less hawkish → euro pressure → EUR/USD down, DXY up
Middle East tension → oil up, gold up; cool inflation → AUD down, USD up
Mixed US labour/inflation → uncertain equity/FX impact
Hawkish inflation view → yields rise → USD up, equity futures down, gold down